Tuesday, August 3, 2010

Is a change in the offing?

The murder of Muttahida Qaumi Movemnet (MQM) Member Provincial Assemble (MPA) Syed Raza Haider is a major setback for the coalition set-up and reconciliation process initiated by President Asif Ali Zardari and now it seems that a change, albeit a negative one, is in the offing.

Haider was gunned down on Monday along with his guards. MQM chief Altaf Hussain has demanded that the president and prime minister conduct a high level investigation of the murder and punish those involved in it. Announcing three-day mourning, Hussain directly blamed the Awami National Part (ANP) for the legislator’s murder.

Meanwhile, President Zardari described the murder as a ‘conspiracy’ against the democratic government while Chief Minister Sindh Syed Qaim Ali Shah and Interior Minister Rehman Malik also condemned the act.

Syed Raza Haider was elected from PS-94 Orangi Town Karachi. Orangi Town is the most affected area and many of MQM’s workers have been killed here in ethnic clashes. Raza secured 79,634 votes in the 2008 election from the constituency and was elected twice as an MPA. A graduate from City College Nazimabad Karachi, Raza also served as a banker and later he was active in MQM politics and served in the party as a sector in charge.

Haider’s murder is a major setback not only for the MQM but also the coalition setup of the Sindh government. Although MQM and ANP are partners in the Sindh government as well as the federal government, the rivals are engaged in a blame game for the last two years. Despite efforts by President Zardari, relations between the MQM and ANP could not be normalised and political observers now believe that the coalition setup could not survive if the situation does not change soon.

Now, whether MQM will choose the last option and back out from the coalition is a debate that has begun after the MPA’s murder. Political circles who have closely watched the party’s reaction claim that blaming ANP for Raza’s murder is a clear indication that the situation will worsen.

While the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) government is already disturbed with the super flood that is headed Sindh’s way, its woes have increased after Haider’s killing. MQM has 51 members in the Sindh Assembly and is a major coalition partner while ANP has two seats in the provincial assembly. It will be difficult for PPP to ignore the major coalition partner at this stage when the fake degree issue is already affecting PPP’s strength in the national assembly.

MQM has already conveyed to President Zardari its reservations about the policies of the provincial government especially about the tackling of issues related to political affairs among the partners. President Zardari has intervened so many times to defuse the situation and made sure that MQM remains in the coalition. He deputed Rehman Malik for mediation between PPP and MQM to normalise the relation.

Malik visited Karachi and then went to London to meet with Hussain. This exercise was repeated two weeks ago when target killings had created a huge law and order situation in Karachi and both coalition partners accused each others.

However, the efforts of Malik could not succeed and MQM conveyed to him that it was not satisfied as its party workers and local leaders were being gunned down. MQM also expressed its annoyance over the role of police and home department.

The future of the coalition government in Sindh and at the center is dependent on the stand taken by the MQM. Political observers have hinted that there is little chance that MQM would back out from the coalition. However, the political situation will change drastically and the entire set up would be disturbed if MQM withdraws its support to PPP, they maintained.